Last week I had the privilege and pleasure to watch @Geraldine Wharry present a report on Hypercycles she worked on together with Gung Ho, as well as a feedback session in the @Trend Atelier Community which I hold close to my heart.💖
The report has been in the works for a few months and Geraldine asked me and many other experts a few questions, I am proud to be on a list close to this talented and stellar team.
Here is my full interview:
GW: On 'What is the value of trends today?'
NM:It seems putting a name on a trend talking about it on social media or riding it in some sort of PR or product activation has become the norm. Brands want to capture vibes so that they can capture consumers, inspire aesthetics, and enter the communities they have created, authentically or not. There is a growing body of future foresight practitioners actively questioning what we think is a dangerous subversion of analyzing and forecasting trends.
I believe in the value of trends today, Trends have always played a role in reflecting societal changes and influencing consumer behavior. However, there is a growing issue about the way trends are perceived, curated, and used by marketing agencies and brands.
In my opinion, the main issue is the superficiality of the never-ending cycle of trend-chasing, which can often lead to a shallow and insensitive approach to culture, aesthetics, and consumer engagement.
It’s what’s the next shine object syndrome? That we involved in the fashion world know so well.
From my perspective, the current usage of trends by brands that are not part of a certain culture or can misguide their target in their authenticity, which means brands would sound fake and people wouldn’t trust them. Breaking the communication between brands and their target audience.
What that means for us Trend Forecasters, researchers, and agencies, this current obsession, with the next big thing or social media trend, can overshadow the important value of our work, the profound analyses of societal changes, reducing the connection we can create between humans and brands.
GW: What do you think about trends still having a positive meaning and power?
NM:I believe that using trends just as a way to make consumers buy more is long gone but using trends as a real form of connection and a tool to understand societal changes, consumer needs, and mindsets. It’s extremely valuable and empowering and it can have a deep positive impact on society.
Without understanding people it’s impossible to create innovation that will have real value for users and society as a whole.
Trends are important to help us recognize the interests and cultural expressions of a tribe or society. It can be used as a source of celebration, diversity, and representation of different perspectives and communities.
People often align with trends and companies that resonate with their values and identity.
We use trends to raise awareness of important social environmental and wellbeing issues.
GW: Alternatively, what do you think are the dangers of trends losing deeper long-term relevance?
NM: Fashion has become a pill for short-term satisfaction, as has music and wider areas of culture.
As part of the fashion trend forecasting machine, this niche industry’s role has been to guide brands into relevance and commerciality, serving for-profit businesses and services. But under the guise of tracking and predicting culture, trends shared in reports feel like they have become a self-fulfilling prophecy and more of a report on what’s happening now, not a guide to creating strategies for a preferable future.
Back in the day, trends used to come back around every 20 years, last and mark generations, but what we are seeing now, is happening more rapidly, with trends from different decades and cultural backgrounds coexisting simultaneously. This is happening for various reasons, including the influence of social media and the internet. Microtrends and subcultures are emerging every day, and trends go through their life cycle much faster, lasting only months or weeks instead of years. It’s very hard for us to define what is a trend or a fad. What we can define though is that the younger generations' mentalities have shifted from consumer to creator and have a voice on what they want to see, listen to, consume, and use. Instead of simply absorbing what brands and celebrities are communicating. In this sense, I do think that it’s quite relevant for us researchers, even though their opinion might change on the swipe of video on Tik-Tok.
What I think it’s problematic for the creative industry though in the age of information, the influence of social media, and the sense of nihilism in modern life, particularly when it comes to issues like climate change. People are more than ever revisiting the past in fashion and pop culture instead of creating new concepts.
Today we are always watching and consuming what others are doing instead of looking inside of us and outside of our phones to create. Also, we are seeking much more validation from others and social media clout than in the past and this behavior can be seen in brands, creators, and people.
GW: Do you think we have dropped the ball in terms of serving real needs and diverse cultures?
NM: I don’t think we have dropped the ball I think the problem is much bigger than a trend forecaster consultant or trend forecasting agencies not being able to serve people’s real needs or lacking the knowledge of inclusion of more diverse cultures and generational tribes.
I believe the issue is who is behind our salaries or agencies fees. Clients/Brands in the majority of the time, even if their work has a big focus on customer centricity, social impact, climate consciousness, and sustainable values behind their logo. They still have to sell and communicate properly with their target audience so their message is heard and resonates and above all propagated.
So sometimes we sit in a briefing meeting and we know that we have to communicate to them what’s happening in the world. What possible scenarios may turn into reality in a few years? What different consumer targets want/need and say about their brands. In a way, we still have to make sure that their investment in our work brings the ROI, so it makes sense for them to continue hiring us and investing in innovation.
For those brands sometimes they would love the idea of serving diverse cultures, having great social impact, and improving people’s daily lives but most of the time they are afraid to leave their comfort zones, try something new, invest in a new target audience communication, or a different product for a minority of consumers. Because we as trend forecasters deal with people’s feelings, ideas, and subjective data, even though it might be connected to research numbers it’s still too vague for them to bet on it.
Especially in times like are living right now, after the pandemic, in the middle of wars in Europe and the Middle East, and many other issues in South, North America and Africa, and Asia. Without counting on the natural disasters that somehow are connected to this profit mindset.
I believe the question is who is willing to bet on innovation for real, which brands are willing to back up their D&I discourse in real life, and how we as thought leaders can guide them through pathways that will give them some kind of assurance when trying something new.
Trend forecasting is closely tied to the fashion and marketing industries, which often prioritize profit over cultural sensitivity and authenticity.
I think it's important to recognize that trend forecasting is evolving, and many in the field are becoming more aware of the need for diversity, inclusion, and authenticity. Some trend forecasters are actively working to address these concerns by seeking input from diverse communities and engaging in more responsible trend analysis. But we need to do more than that and prove our values by delivering to clients and the global audience what they both want and need from us and each other.
Last Week during a workshop a question popped up: What methodology should we use to effectively measure time frames for future foresight work, especially considering the integration of different foresight methods?
This is how I do it:
I usually divide in cycles of now, in 2 years, in 5 years, in 10 years, and so on. Does this still works today… Yes and No. Hypercycles: Get your copy here.
Do not forget the trend cycles and the Maslow pyramid. Plus, consider all the science fiction, movies, and books. People are trying to accomplish ideas that they've either had themselves or have been sold to believe.
Basic needs come first, and what comes next? Consider how people have done things before and how they would like to get them done. At the end of the day, we are animals who think.
Someone might have already found the solution for something, and maybe you are not aware of that. Sometimes we overcomplicate things out of our confusion.
The simplest ideas are usually the best, but they can be refined with elegance, or not.
It depends on the goal of your research and what you want to communicate.
Remember, everything can be biased most of the time. Ask first, then take the risk!
On a personal note, I finally finished yesterday my Matryoshka tattoo that I had started almost 10 years ago in São Paulo with my friend and tattoo artist Teté. In a super cool studio, I've just got to learn about Swahili Bob's captained by maurofromthehills here on Söder! 🇸🇪
🎧 Spotify on repeat:
🎥Netflix and chill:
I'm here to help you navigate and discover what truly resonates with your Brand’s style. Reach out if you want to learn more. See you next week!🚀👩🏻🚀🛰️